비트코인, 화폐, 그리고 취약성(Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility)" (나심 탈레브) 2021.6

여름으로 접어들 때쯤 나와 한번 코인판을 흔들어왔던 이야기.

 

나심 탈레브의 2021년 글(논문), "비트코인, 화폐, 그리고 취약성(Bitcoin, Currencies, and Fragility)"

 

INTRODUCTION/ABSTRACT

This discussion applies quantitative finance methods and economic arguments to cryptocurrencies in generaland bitcoin in particular —as there are about 10, 000 cryptocurrencies, we focus (unless otherwise specified) on the most discussed crypto of those that claim to hew to the original protocol [and the one with, by far, thelargest market capitalization.

In its current version, in spite of the hype, bitcoin failed to satisfy the notion of "currency without government" (it proved to not even be a currency at all), can be neither a short nor long term store of value (its expected value is no higher than 0), cannot operate as a reliable inflation hedge, and, worst of all, does not constitute, not even remotely, a safe haven for one’s investments, a shield against government tyranny, or a tail protection vehicle for catastrophic episodes.

Furthermore, bitcoin promoters appear to conflate the success of a payment mechanism (as a decentralized mode of exchange), which so far has failed, with the speculative variations in the price of a zero-sum maximally fragile asset with massive negative externalities.

Going through monetary history, we show how a true numeraire must be one of minimum variance with respect to an arbitrary basket of goods and services, how gold and silver lost their inflation hedge status during the Hunt brothers squeeze in the late 1970s and what would be required from a true inflation hedged store of value.

 

Principle 1: Cumulative ruin
If any non-dividend yielding asset has the tiniest probability of hitting an absorbing barrier (causing its value
to become 0), then its present value must be 0.

 

Comment 2: Success for a digital currency
There is a mistaken conflation between success for a "digital currency", which requires some stability and usability, and speculative price appreciation.

 

Comment 3: Payment system
There is a conflation between "accepting bitcoin for payments" and pricing goods in bitcoin. To "price" in bitcoin, bitcoin the price must be fixed, with a conversion into fiat floating, rather than the reverse.

 

Comment 4: Law vs. Regulations vs. Rules
Libertarianism is about the rule of law in place of the rule of regulation. It is not about the rule of rules

 

등.

 

저자 웹사이트:

https://nassimtaleb.org/2021/06/bitcoin-currencies-bubbles/

https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF.pdf
https://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/BTC-QF-appendix.pdf

 

관련 기사.

https://news.mt.co.kr/mtview.php?no=2021071414243565023 

'블랙스완' 저자 탈레브의 변심? "비트코인 화폐가치는 '0' " - 머니투데이

https://www.bloter.net/newsView/blt202107150027

[블록먼데이] '비트코인 가격 안정화' 이면의 아이러니

그래서 반박기사도 여럿 있습니다.

 

https://magazine.hankyung.com/business/article/202107218873b

“0달러에 수렴한다고?” 비트코인이 맞이하게 될 진짜 미래는[비트코인 A to Z]

https://www.mk.co.kr/premium/special-report/view/2021/07/30567/

비트코인 가격이 0원이 되는 5가지 시나리오